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In a dour year for the economy, the housing market has offered some glimmers of hope. Home sales have improved, recently hitting their highest level in more than two years. There’s been talk of bidding wars resuming in places like Silicon Valley and New York City. And cocktail party chatter everywhere has started to turn to talk of a bottom. So at least where housing’s concerned, things are looking not so bad — right?

If that’s what you think, you may not want to invite Mark Zandi to your next cocktail party. The chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, Zandi has some sobering predictions: Home prices are going to fall 5% to 10% more — and over 30% in places like Miami — between now and this time next year. Then they might start turning around. (Emphasis on “might.”)

At the top of Zandi’s list of worries are foreclosures — specifically, the millions of loans that are in foreclosure or headed there that can’t or won’t be modified. According to RealtyTrac, nearly 2 million housing units in the U.S. are in foreclosure or bank-owned, and millions more are likely to join them.

Zandi estimates that 2.4 million homes will find their way into foreclosure next year. He expects banks to start putting those properties on the market more aggressively during the first half of the year, resulting in a flood of cut-rate inventory that will drag prices down.

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